2007 Volatility: Below Historical Average

Thursday, January 03, 2008 | 11:45 AM

I keep hearing how there was an unusual amount of volatility in 2007.

That assessment is wrong. We have become used to the aberrationally low volatility of recent years, but historically,  we are just below average, according to Bespoke Group:

"The average absolute daily price change in the S&P 500 by year. In 2007, the average worked out to 72 basis points, which means that, on average, the S&P 500 had a daily move (up or down) of 0.72% versus an average of 0.75% since 1928. The last time the market was this 'placid' was in 1996."

SPX Chart:
>

Average_daily_change


>

Source:
VOLATILITY? WHAT VOLATILITY?   
Think B.I.G., December 31, 2007 at 11:41 AM
http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2007/12/volatility-what.html

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Thursday, January 03, 2008 | 11:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (19) | TrackBack (0)
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Comments

It looks like the average is inflated from outliers in the 29-32 era. What if we started this thing from 1942 instead...

Posted by: Joe | Jan 3, 2008 12:04:51 PM

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