Presidential Politics on Intrade

Thursday, February 21, 2008 | 07:00 PM

Here's some interesting data from the friendly (small and thinly traded) markets at Intrade.

Note: I care less about the politics than the group dynamics of these futures markets:
>

Obama vs Hillary: 80/20

80_20_obama_hillary

>

Obama fans should not get too excited though: In October, Intrade gave him a mere 10% shot of winning the Democratic nomination; In December -- a mere 60 days ago -- it was 20%:

Obama_chart

>


And John McCain is still only a 35% chance to win -- but thats up huge from under 5% for most of tlast year (June to December 2007) :

Mccain_chart

>


As Dan Gross noted, "these these are less futures markets than immediate-past markets . . ."

via Intrade

Thursday, February 21, 2008 | 07:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (22) | TrackBack (0)
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Comments

You don't think there's a difference between October of 2007 and today?

~~~

BR: Yes, in October, Obama was not winning, and thats how Intrade "forecasted" the rest of the race.

Now Obama has won 9 primaries in a row, and voila! 80% going forward, according to this prediction market.

Posted by: Steve | Feb 21, 2008 7:08:18 PM

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