Me Media: Prediction Markets in the NYT

Wednesday, February 13, 2008 | 03:30 PM

(With apologies to Paul for stealing the headline) Last month, we took a look at Why Prediction Markets Fail, reviewing some of the more blatant misses. That theme was picked up in a longer NY Times piece today, titled, Looking for Sure Political Bets at Online Prediction Market.

For those of you who are as intrigued about these markets as I am -- warts and all -- its a must read.

Here's the NYT Ubiq-cerpt:™ :

It’s no wonder, then, that the site has become a phenomenon. In recent months, when I have asked former advisers to Mr. Bush or Bill Clinton what they think will happen in 2008, they’ve often talked about Intrade. The Wall Street Journal and The Financial Times run regular online features based on the odds. Journalists — me included — have praised Intrade as a miniature version of the stock market, where the collective wisdom of the masses reveals a larger truth.

But now a little backlash has begun. Barry Ritholtz, author of the popular Big Picture economics blog, has put together a list of Intrade’s misses. Last Tuesday, meanwhile, I e-mailed a high-profile Democratic economist and asked what he made of the dueling numbers coming from the California polls and from Intrade. He replied with a salty

two-word message, the second word of which was “Intrade.”

Fun stuff . . .



>

Sources:
Looking for Sure Political Bets at Online Prediction Market
DAVID LEONHARDT
NYT, February 13, 2008
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/13/business/13leonhardt.html

Previously:

Why Prediction Markets Fail   
Friday, January 11, 2008 | 07:50 AM   http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/01/prediction-mark.html

See Also:

Prediction Traders Put Their Money on Obama
JUNE KRONHOLZ
WSJ, February 13, 2008; Page A8
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120286576982063999.html

Wednesday, February 13, 2008 | 03:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
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Comments

Prediction markets fall flat if a majority of the people on them are getting their information via Cable TV News, and that information is false.

But it's a good source of income for those who know what's really going on.

Posted by: Drewbert | Feb 13, 2008 3:43:57 PM

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