The Big Picture

« Why the Fed is Compelled to Lie to Congress | Main | Dollar Submerged »

Who Are These People Surprised by Economic Data?

Thursday, February 28, 2008 | 11:54 AM

The WSJ on gross domestic product and initial jobless claims:

"Stocks fell Thursday after weaker-than-expected economic readings and earnings reports underscored the potential for a recession."

Weaker than expected? WTF?

I keep hearing people talk about this "negativity bubble" -- but from where I sit, the media, traders, analysts are still too optimistic -- perhaps way too optimistic.

We have had 4 rallies over the past few weeks of nearly 200 Dow points in a given day. That doesn't sound like excessive pessimism to me.

Ask yourself this: Is the greater fear getting stuck with stocks that move lower -- or missing any rally?

Its easy to make an argument that speculative fervor lives; that the steep yield curve has emboldened traders, and that the lower prices are attractive; and that most of the bad news is already priced in.

But consider the following headlines:

Eight Reasons There Won't Be a Recession

Blue chips are signaling recession can be avoided

Stocks in U.S. Tumble After GDP Trails Economists' Forecasts

Eisenbeis Says Concerns of U.S. Recession `Overblown'

U.S. Economy Grew 0.6% in Q4, Less Than Economists Estimated