Bearish Blogger Too Optimistic!
I've been way too optimistic.
That may come as a surprise to some friends (Paul!) and other blog watchers in the media.
But its true -- going by the numbers, I was too bullish in my expectations for the indices this year. My mid-year and year end expectations (see this post for the 2008 forecast) was for a 10-15% selloff by mid year (video here).
The market's surpassed those numbers before the first quarter was even over. And, while we are now in oversold rally mode, as of the beginning of the week, just about all of the major US markets were already below my targets for July 1:
| ndex | 2008 Mid-Year | 2008 Final | March 10 Close |
| DJIA | 11,900 | 12,800 | 11,740.15 |
| S&P 500 | 1275 | 1350 | 1,273.37 |
| NASDAQ | 2275 | 2400 | 2,169.34 |
| Russell 2000 | 580 | 639 | 643.97 |
| 10-year yield | 3.75% | 4.10% |
3.56% |
>
Other than the Russell, the market shave exceeded the forecast to the downside.
There you have it. My big flaw: Too Bullish!
Friday, March 14, 2008 | 06:54 AM | Permalink
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And this is despite the fact that, as Paul so eloquently discusses, the Bears have the best arguments
http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2007/12/13/why_bears_alway.html
Posted by: Barry Ritholtz | Mar 14, 2008 7:17:30 AM
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