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Who Has Been Wrong On Housing, Credit, Economy, Dollar?

Thursday, March 06, 2008 | 08:47 PM

in Commodities | Data Analysis | Economy | Financial Press | Markets

I really don't like to single out any one firm or strategist for excessive criticism -- hey, we're all wrong on quite a regular basis. But, goddamn, if Bear Stearn's David Malpass hasn't been on the wrong side of more than a few major issues facing the economy over the past few years.

We first noted his wrong way cheerleading from a NYT piece in 2005, where Malpass was complaining that "the way the Bureau of Economic Analysis calculates savings, the changing asset values haven't affected the national savings rate." The problem with his analysis was that these variable assets (Stocks, Houses, etc.) fluctuate in price, while the other side of the ledger -- debt to acquire these assets -- did not. More recently, Malpass downplayed the credit crisis -- just as Bear Stearns was blowing up from the, uh, credit crisis. And he's been wrong on the dollar also.

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But surely, he's not the only one who was compromised by his shop, or who refused to see what was happening in real time. Anyone else on Wall Street worth mentioning?

What shills and montebanks, liars and hypocrites (strategists, pundits & fund managers) have been on the wrong side of the dollar, oil, equities, bonds, agriculture, consumer spending, precious metals, employment, homebuilders, financials, or technology ? I want names, dates, and URLs.

Not just the people who were merely wrong -- but those who knew, or should have known, better -- but spread the hackery anyway.

What say ye?

Previously:
What's the U.S. Savings Rate Really? http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/05/whats_the_us_sa.html

Sources:
'Don't Panic About the Credit Market
DAVID MALPASS
WSJ, August 7, 2007
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118645120890190059.html

Is It a Savings Crisis or a Math Error?
DANIEL GROSS
NYT, May 22, 2005
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/22/business/yourmoney/22view.html