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USA's Top Forecaster: NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun

Wednesday, March 19, 2008 | 05:30 PM

I am slack jawed and dumb-founded. I am nearly speechless.

Here's why: According to a National Association of Realtors press release, the NAR Chief Economist was named among top forecasters for accuracy by USA Today.

Note: I found this press release on the NAR site, but I was unable to independently confirm it via Google or USA Today.

Apparently, I am not the only one who is perplexed by this. LawrenceYunWatch, the successor site to DavidLereahWatch, is even more miffed than I:

USA Today certainly did not do its homework. Have they read the Lawrence Yun Watch?

In September 2005 Yun predicted "The chance of a housing price decline in the DC area is close to zero, in my view. I anticipate that prices in DC will outpace the national average price growth. DC prices will rise at close to a 7 to 10 % rate of appreciation. "

As we know prices have declined significantly in the DC area since Yun's wrong prediction. According to the S&P Case Shiller Index, since September 2005 DC area prices have fallen 8.4%.Do not trust Lawrence Yun.

Yun even recently admitted that "It is also fine for people to point the finger at me. In a fast changing market conditions, I too have been off on my forecast."

The general public and media need to be aware of his spins, predictions that have proven very wrong, and his contradictory statements. Mr Yun is a paid spinner who has lost his credibility. The USA Today should be ashamed of its shoddy work.

Can anyone find any mention of this beyond a press release? I am stymied . . .

(Updated -- thanks!)

Sources:

Economist expects Fed to cut rates at least a half-point
Barbara Hagenbaugh and Barbara Hansen,
USA TODAY, March 17, 2008
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2008-03-16-top-economist_N.htm

NAR Chief Economist Named Among Top Forecasters for Accuracy
WASHINGTON, March 17, 2008
http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2008/nar_chief_economist_top_forecaster.html

Ridiculous: USA Today Names Lawrence Yun as Top Economic Forecaster
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
http://lawrenceyunwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/ridiculous-usa-today-names-lawrence-yun.html