GDP is . . . 0.6%

Wednesday, April 30, 2008 | 08:29 AM

I will be out of pocket when GDP gets released, so feel free to go to the official BEA release;  use the comments below to update/discuss the actual GDP data points.

A few things to look for beyond the actual number:  Corporate profits, PCE, and seasonal adjustments.


UPDATE: April 30, 2008 9:47am

If we ignore the real (inflation adjusted) factor, as we delve deeper into the data, we see that Q1 spending (personal consumption expenditures) rose just 1.0% versus 2.3% in Q4. This matches Q2 2001's gains.

How did the rest of the numbers look?

GDP increased 3.2% to an annualized $14.19 trillion (in current dollars);
Gross private domestic investment was down -0.7%; 
Business fixed investment: -2.5%.
Residential investment data actually accelerated downwards; the number -26.7% was the biggest drop since 1981. (who keeps calling those Real Estate bottoms?)
Purchases of durable goods fell 6.1%
Q1 non-durables spending dropped 1.3%.
Business spending fell by 2.5%.
Investment in structures went down 6.2%.
Equipment and software outlays decreased 0.7%.

The Final sales of domestic product (GDP less change in private inventories) fell 0.2%; final domestic sales (gross domestic product, excluding additions to stocks and international  trade) dropped 0.4%. THIS WAS THE FIRST DECLINE SINCE THE 1991 RECESSION.

A few positives: First-quarter spending rose 1.0%, Services gained 3.4% and  exports rose by 5.5%. While local governments are struggling, Uncle Sam remains profligate: Federal Government consumptions were +4.6% versus State and Local Govt: +0.5%.

Also helping to keep nominal GDP in the green: Inventory builds. They rose slightly for the quarter by $1.8B, versus going down $18.3 billion in Q4. That contributed 0.81% to Q1 GDP, and without it, the Q would have been negative.

courtesy of Barron's Econoday



GDP, Inflation & Recession

GDP, April 30, 2008

Wednesday, April 30, 2008 | 08:29 AM | Permalink | Comments (22) | TrackBack (0) add to | digg digg this! | technorati add to technorati | email email this post



TrackBack URL for this entry:

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference GDP is . . . 0.6%:


Did I read that right? GDP increased at 0.6% again this quarter(same as 4th quarter of 2007). Interesting stuff. How far back do the revise? Is the BEA Immune from political pressure?

Posted by: Joe Klein's conscience | Apr 30, 2008 8:39:24 AM

The comments to this entry are closed.

Recent Posts

December 2008
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
  1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28 29 30 31      


Complete Archives List



Category Cloud

On the Nightstand

On the Nightstand

 Subscribe in a reader

Get The Big Picture!
Enter your email address:

Read our privacy policy

Essays & Effluvia

The Apprenticed Investor

Apprenticed Investor

About Me

About Me
email me

Favorite Posts

Tools and Feeds

AddThis Social Bookmark Button

Add to Google Reader or Homepage

Subscribe to The Big Picture

Powered by FeedBurner

Add to Technorati Favorites


My Wishlist

Worth Perusing

Worth Perusing

mp3s Spinning

MP3s Spinning

My Photo



Odds & Ends

Site by Moxie Design Studios™