Nobel Laurelates on the Economy
CNBC had three Nobel winners on Friday morn -- Joseph Stiglitz, Robert Engle and Edmund Phelps -- discussing Housing, Credit, and the state of the US economy. It was terrific television, and showed how good the medium can be when it sets its mind on it.
Incidentally, longtime readers may remember our amusing encounter with Prof Robert Engle back in 2003. If you haven't seen that, its definitely worth reading.
Joseph Stiglitz, 2001 Nobel Prize winner and Columbia University professor
"The real important point from an economic perspective is the gap between the economy’s potential growth and its actual growth. And without a doubt, there’s a big gap. I think we’re probably in a recession. The real concern is how long, how deep. This is one of the worst—clearly going to be the worst ... downturns since the Great Depression.”
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Robert Engle, Nobel Laureate Economist winner 2003 and New York University professor
"I think that we've got a lot of strength that's going to come out of the export sector, the technology sector. We've seen good earnings reports from some of them. They're thriving on this weak dollar. It's giving them a chance to sell goods all over the world. And I think that's going to probably pull us out."
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Edmund Phelps, Nobel Prize winner in economics 2006
"The rise of the unemployment rate has been mild, and it started from a very, very low level of 4.3 just ten or twelve months ago. By that metric, this is a mild downturn.”
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Related:
A funny thing happened to me on the way to the studio tonight . . . http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2003/11/a_funny_thing_h.html
Source:
Where's the Economy Going? Nobel Winners Weigh In
CNBC.com 25 Apr 2008
http://www.cnbc.com/id/24313079/site/14081545
Sunday, April 27, 2008 | 09:30 AM | Permalink
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The most amazing part of the discussion was the opinion that no wage inflation mitigated the the asset inflation. I think this is the very cause of the current problem.
FED policy that exacerbates inflation while benefiting wall street will make the problem signifantly worse.
I think anyone who doesn't understand this should visit a shopping mall.
In south west Florida in Naples, Sarasota and Tampa - the stores are having half price sales and the stores are still empty!
Sears is going to offer a 30% discount on Kenmore appliances and that still won't clear inventory.
How is it that economists of this stature don't seem to recognize that the bottom 60% (perhaps higher...I am guessing about this) of wage earners contribute significant amounts to GDP through their purchases and they are out of money.
My brother in law is selling a trailer/camper and has put an add in the paper. His phone is ringing off the hook from people that want it to have a place to live!
Posted by: Sailorman | Apr 27, 2008 10:12:41 AM
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