New Home Sales Fall 42%
Sales of new one-family houses in April 2008 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 526,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This is 3.3% (±11.7%)* above the revised March rate of 509,000, but is 42.0% (±8.1%) below the April 2007 estimate of 907,000.
As we discussed ad nauseum, given the margin of error, the monthly change is not statistically significant . . .
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courtesy of Barron's Econoday
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Source:
New Home Sales in April
Census Bureau
http://www.census.gov/const/newressales.pdf
Download newressales_April_2008.pdf
* 90% confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.
Tuesday, May 27, 2008 | 10:58 AM | Permalink
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» Not So Fast On New Home Sales from The Big Picture
On Tuesday, we noted that New Home Sales fell 42%. There was one small piece of the data I failed to mention earlier in the week, which is worth discussing -- the March revisions: 1) Revisions: April's (unrevised) data for new homes was 526k annualized... [Read More]
Tracked on May 30, 2008 7:31:00 AM
» April New Home Sales - Revisited from The Big Picture
On Tuesday, we noted that New Home Sales fell 42%. There was one small piece of the data I failed to mention earlier in the week, which is worth discussing -- the March revisions: 1) Revisions: April's (unrevised) data for new homes was 526k annualized... [Read More]
Tracked on May 30, 2008 7:34:22 AM
Comments
I wish I were a psychologist...this country is delusional. Nobody I talk to ever wants to listen to economic reality besides bitching about gas prices. Twenty-five years of the Greenspan put have screwed up the country. They can't handle the down 42% number, so they are fed the plus 3% number. The mainstream media wants to be negative about politics and crime...every bloody story makes headlines. But on the economy, the 2 minute segment on the 10 o-clock news, it is "great day on Wall Street" if the market goes up. Barry has talked about the Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model before...look at it now. Now is the time to talk about it, when investors are at record levels of euphoria (per this measure) and reality is that a long recession or worse is here. Either that or this measure is useless and should be ignored. Which is it?
Posted by: Steve Barry | May 27, 2008 11:23:44 AM
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