Signs of a Housing Bottom?

Friday, May 09, 2008 | 09:00 AM


This is the very first evidence I have seen that we might be near the bottom in housing.

No, not the chart above -- this:

It’s Going to Get Worse

Economist David Lereah was once the housing market's biggest cheerleader. Now he says the bust isn't near over, and home prices still have a long way to fall.   

"We're not at the bottom," he says. "[People] want it to be near the bottom, but we're not there yet. The leading indicators are still very bad. Pending home sales are still in bad shape. Mortgage applications are low … There's still supply out there in abundance … This thing is going to get worse before it gets better."

Lereah says that the industry may begin to see a slight uptick in sales later this summer, which could signal the start of the recovery. Home prices, however, will continue to fall. According to the latest numbers from the Case-Shiller index, the average U.S. home has lost around 15 percent of its value since the market's peak. "We're probably going to end up with a 20 percent [decline], but if I'm wrong it will be even more than that," he says.

I'd call that capitulation -- tho its only one person.

Oh wait -- there's this: "So even if this slump remains far from over, David Lereah still thinks it may be a smart time to buy."   That suggest no bottom in sight.

Oh Yeah, that's the good stuff . . .


It’s Going to Get Worse
Daniel McGinn
Newsweek,  May 6, 2008 | Updated: 11:15  a.m. ET May 6, 2008

Gloom in the Housing Market Persists
Asha Bangalore
Northern Trust Global Economic Research, May 7, 2008


U.S. Home Slump Puts Owners Under Water, Zillow Says

Friday, May 09, 2008 | 09:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (27) | TrackBack (0) add to | digg digg this! | technorati add to technorati | email email this post



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He might have capitulated, but he still has hope that it will start to turn around this summer - there is no reason, other than wishful thinking, to make that assumption.

I feel sorry for him.

Posted by: Marcus Aurelius | May 9, 2008 9:14:43 AM

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