“Appalling” Market Fundamentals, Not Inflation, Is The Problem
Fascinating discussion a few weeks ago in welling@weeden with Albert Edwards and James Montier of Societe Generale, reprinted with permission:
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"In the cacophony that is global investment strategy research, Albert Edwards (that’s him, below left) and James Montier (on the right) stand out as clearly distinctive voices. And not merely because of their British accents or because they’ve tended to the decidedly bearish side of the scale over the last decade or so. Despite long tenure in the rarified top echelons of the investment banking world, for many years with Dresdner Kleinwort and more recently at Societe Generale(where they are co-heads of global cross asset strategy) both have managed to retain a natural plain-spoken bluntness. Also large dollops of common sense and strong streaks of reflexive independence, which they employ in conveying their often invaluable insights on investment strategy. In Albert’s case, those spring mostly from his long experience in the dismal science of economics and in James’, from his explorations of the equally mysterious realms of behavioral neuroscience.
They are, in a word, skeptics, and at this juncture most deeply skeptical of any and all notions that “the worst is over.” The recession, which has barely begun, is more likely to be deep than shallow, market valuations are hideously expensive and the flation policymakers should be worried about starts with de-, not in-.
For their reasons, keep reading, if you dare."
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Source:
Inflation Not The Problem
Kate Welling
welling@weeden, May 30, 2008
Download 053008_Welling_Edwards-Montier_REPRINT.pdf
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Wednesday, June 25, 2008 | 08:30 AM | Permalink
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Comments
The Minsky cycle, increase of the debt burden when incomes or cash flows remain at best the same (remember the mantra leverage your balance sheet?) is now well introduced and Schumpeter has not shown his statistics yet, the great shame is it will not be contained to those whom deserve it the financial industry only.
Posted by: Philippe | Jun 25, 2008 9:19:20 AM
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