Byron Wien
Pequot's Byron Wien on the Recession, Inflation, Valuation and Markets
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Source:
Mastering the Markets
CNBC, Thurs. Jun. 12 2008 | 8:42 AM
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=769003169&
Saturday, June 14, 2008 | 03:30 AM | Permalink
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Conditions going into options expiration week are eerily similar to October, 1987.
Friday's rally and Cramer's announcement of the S&P Oscillator being oversold at -6 look to be HUGE bull traps.
If you've read "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator," you have some sense of how strong hand insiders work to shake weak hands of their shares. A moment for such an event appears at hand.
Should we see a precipitous decline going into expiration, look out the week of June 23rd. This will be the shake out, much as it was on October 19, 1987, the day after expiration.
This past week was a thing to behold in its demonstration of how weak are the hands of options writers below the market. (Friday's advance was no sign of strength; rather it was clearly a trap.) Should these seemingly weak hands continue to be challenged going into expiration, they will have no choice but sell their underlying once the June contract goes off the board...
Posted by: Risk Averse Alert | Jun 14, 2008 6:30:17 AM
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