Shilling Sees 'Big Nose Dive' in Consumer Spending June

Friday, June 13, 2008 | 03:30 AM

Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., talks about the outlook for the U.S. economy, dollar and Federal Reserve monetary policy.

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click for video
Shilling

00:00 Outlook: "big nose dive in consumer spending"
01:10 Discrepancy between unemployment, payrolls
02:26 Prospects for Fed policy, bond market
05:26 "Very optimistic" on U.S. dollar
07:26 China's economy, growth outlook


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Source:
Shilling Sees 'Big Nose Dive' in Consumer Spending June
Bloomberg, June 11 2008
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a6uKx1qEtvAE

Friday, June 13, 2008 | 03:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
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Comments

3:30 am? I thought I was the only one working these crazy hours.

So we've got:

• Falling home prices, so no more cash out re-fis
• Decline in funds available through HELOCs and CCs
• Poor rates of new job creation
• Continuing layoffs across many sectors
• Decline in hours worked/week
• State/local govt's in great financial stress
• Dramatic increases in gas/food prices

The stimulus checks can't make up for more than a small fraction of the effects exacted by these factors, and I agree with Shilling overall about the drop in consumer spending, although I think the big drop will occur in July and August as households start saving for the normal expenditures of the start of the school year. The runup in gas prices is really going to hammer vacation spending in particular. Motels and restaurants all over the country that depend on summer traffic will really be suffering from markedly decreased business.

Posted by: bluestatedon | Jun 13, 2008 4:45:11 AM

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