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Its Unanimous: Banks Have Bottomed!

Saturday, July 19, 2008 | 10:12 AM

in Contrary Indicators | Credit | Dividends | Financial Press | Valuation

Very strange confluence of media coverage this morning on the banking sector. All three major financial papers (WSJ, NYT, Barron's) have stories on the bottom of the banking sector:

WSJ: Jitters Ease as Citi, Rivals Show Signs of Bottoming Out

NYT: Hope, and Hints, That Financial Stocks Have Finally Touched Bottom

Barron's: Buy Banks -Selectively (cover story)

Can you recall the last time 3 major media players all picked the bottom in a market or sector on the exact same day -- and were all proven correct?

Perhaps the caveats are worth noting -- I found it interesting that all publications had some moderating hedges in place (as opposed to some recent embarrassing cover articles).

As we noted early this week, we covered most of our shorts in the financials, and are now looking for a bounce play in these names. However I remain unconvinced that Banks are now a good long term investment.

Why? The business model of Leverage and Capitalization is now kaput. Its a new era of De-leveraging, and Re-capitalizing.

A long time ago, Banks were 3-6-3 spread players. Pay your depositors 3%, make loans at 6%, be on the golf course at 3pm. But the end of Glass Steagell, and the mergers with investment banks, have put an end to that simple but profitible business. For the past 10 years or so, we seen a model that involved taking on a lot of risk, then leveraging it up 25X, 35X, even 65X (for Fannie).

Now that model has come unglued. Banks of all types are unwinding risk, de-leveraging (selling off assets held on borrowed money) and raising capital. This means that until a new model is developed, profits will be anemic and the shareholder capital structure is about to get wildly diluted.

Freddie Mac (FRE), with its $6B cap, is seeking to raise $10B. That will be enormously dilutive to both future earnings, and shareholder equity. Remember that Lehman Brothers (LEH) capital raise? $6 Billion secondary priced at $28 with 8.75% coupon and an %18 conversion premium? The stock is now $19m, the cap is $13.3B. After the last debacle, good luck with future capital raises -- they are likely to be treated much more skeptically.

Is "the" bottom in?

Well, it certainly looks like "a" bottom is in.

But longer term, this is a sector that is likely to have continued write downs, weak earnings prospects, and a whole lot more regulation and government supervision than it got away with in the past. P/E compression may also be in the cards -- especially if we see some dividend cuts from some of the bigger houses.

Unless you have a decade long time horizon, does that make you want to rush out and own these things anytime soon? Me neither . . .

Charts & Tables:
click for larger graphic

UPDATE: July 20, 2008 8:23pm

Several readers have noted that this is Barron's 2nd attempt to tag a banking bottom in 4 months.

The last time out, they recommended as "cheap" Merrill (MER), Citigroup (C), UBS, HSBC (HBC), Morgan Stanley (MS), Deutsche Bank (DB), Bank of America (BAC), Credit Agricole (ACA) Washington Mutual (WM) and Credit Suisse (CS).

Ouch . . .

Hitting Bottom? Several Banks and Brokerages Are Ready to Pop Up for Air
JACQUELINE DOHERTY
BARRON'S COVER MARCH 24 2008
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB120614230339356243.html

Previously:
Forbes Video: More bank write-downs, U.S. recession, Avoid Home Builders (3/28/08)
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/04/forbes-video-32.html

Quote of the Day: Citibank on Glass Steagall (July 08, 2008)
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/07/quote-of-the--3.html

>
Related:
Video: Still Too Bullish (Apr. 1 2008)
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=700094755>

Sources:
What to Bank On
ANDREW BARY
Barron's JULY 21, 2008
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB121642073624766417.html

Jitters Ease as Citi, Rivals Show Signs of Bottoming Out
DAVID ENRICH
WSJ, July 19, 2008; Page A1
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121636319957764985.html

Hope, and Hints, That Financial Stocks Have Finally Touched Bottom
FLOYD NORRIS
NYT, July 19, 2008
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/19/business/19charts.html

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규제완화의 덫. 이 기사님 칼럼들 강추. 지난주 금융주 반등으로 경제위기는 끝났는가에 대한 글, Its Unanimous: Banks Have Bottomed! 이번해 여름은 예상외로 잔인한 계절이 될듯. (오늘은 여기까지.) [Read More]

Tracked on Jul 19, 2008 8:43:22 PM