PPI, Retail Sales

Tuesday, July 15, 2008 | 10:48 AM

Tax-rebate-goosed June Retail Sales rose less than forecast, up 0.1% headline and 0.8% ex-autos.  Consensus was for gains of 0.4% and 1.0%. Ex-autos and gasoline sales rose 0.2%. Strip out food and beverages -- up 0.7% -- and Retail sales were flat.

In other words, despite the tax rebates, Retail ex-inflation was flat to negative. . .

PPI rose 9.2% year over year -- the highest since June 1981. It was 0.5% more than consensus expectations. Core rate was 0.2% less than expected year over year but remains elevated at 3%. This is the highest since 1991. (See charts below)

Helping suppress price gains was the decline in truck prices. Had Americans not abandoned SUVs and Pickups in such large numbers (courtesy of $4.50 gasoline), PPI would have been even worse.

PPI in the pipeline rose 2.1% month over month -- its up a brutal 14.5% year over year. Employment though fell to the lowest since July '03 and Prices Paid and Received went to new highs.


Ppi_june_08_yoy

Ppijune_crude_intermediate_finished

Charts via Jake

Tuesday, July 15, 2008 | 10:48 AM | Permalink | Comments (12) | TrackBack (0)
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Comments

Inflation adjusted retail sales excluding food services and gasoline are negative for 7 months in a row on a y/y basis. The very worst of the 2001 recession we had 5 negative months y/y in a 10 month period.

(During those 10 months we never had more than 2 months back to back negative.)

Good thing we're not in a recession! Imagine how bad that might be.

My new tagline? The recession of 2008 does not require your belief.

Posted by: Michael Donnelly | Jul 15, 2008 11:01:44 AM

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