Civilian Unemployment & Recessions

Friday, August 29, 2008 | 11:30 AM

The year on year rate of change of the official civilian unemployment rate is the measure, and when this passes 15, then every time it has done this USA has been declared in a recession at a latter point in time (see 3rd panel)

Recessionconfirmed

Chart via iTulip

>

Legend: Shaded area are recessions

1st Panel - USA GDP and USA GDP without exports
2nd Panel - Civilian unemployment rate
3rd Panel - Rate of change of series in 2nd panel

>

 

See also:
Estimating Probabilities of Recession in Real Time Using GDP and GDI
Jeremy J. Nalewaik
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Federal Reserve December 19, 2006   
http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2007/200707/index.html

Friday, August 29, 2008 | 11:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
de.li.cious add to de.li.cious | digg digg this! | technorati add to technorati | email email this post

bn-image

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
https://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d8341c52a953ef00e554c7b6288834

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Civilian Unemployment & Recessions:

Comments

That income number was a shocker this morning, eh Barry? That was actually worse than the more bearish predictions.

We are probably seeing a confluence of rising unemployment and a decrease in hours worked among those employed, something not as obvious but that you can see going on around us.

Fannie and Freddie common not looking like the bargain of the century today, I see....

Posted by: leftback | Aug 29, 2008 11:35:35 AM

The comments to this entry are closed.



Recent Posts

December 2008
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
  1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28 29 30 31      

Archives

Complete Archives List

Blogroll

Blogroll

Category Cloud

On the Nightstand

On the Nightstand

 Subscribe in a reader

Get The Big Picture!
Enter your email address:


Read our privacy policy

Essays & Effluvia

The Apprenticed Investor

Apprenticed Investor

About Me

About Me
email me

Favorite Posts

Tools and Feeds

AddThis Social Bookmark Button

Add to Google Reader or Homepage

Subscribe to The Big Picture

Powered by FeedBurner

Add to Technorati Favorites

FeedBurner


My Wishlist

Worth Perusing

Worth Perusing

mp3s Spinning

MP3s Spinning

My Photo

Disclaimer

Disclaimer

Odds & Ends

Site by Moxie Design Studios™

FeedBurner