Civilian Unemployment & Recessions

Friday, August 29, 2008 | 11:30 AM

The year on year rate of change of the official civilian unemployment rate is the measure, and when this passes 15, then every time it has done this USA has been declared in a recession at a latter point in time (see 3rd panel)


Chart via iTulip


Legend: Shaded area are recessions

1st Panel - USA GDP and USA GDP without exports
2nd Panel - Civilian unemployment rate
3rd Panel - Rate of change of series in 2nd panel



See also:
Estimating Probabilities of Recession in Real Time Using GDP and GDI
Jeremy J. Nalewaik
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Federal Reserve December 19, 2006

Friday, August 29, 2008 | 11:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) add to | digg digg this! | technorati add to technorati | email email this post



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That income number was a shocker this morning, eh Barry? That was actually worse than the more bearish predictions.

We are probably seeing a confluence of rising unemployment and a decrease in hours worked among those employed, something not as obvious but that you can see going on around us.

Fannie and Freddie common not looking like the bargain of the century today, I see....

Posted by: leftback | Aug 29, 2008 11:35:35 AM

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