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Q2 GDP = 3.3% (kinda)

Thursday, August 28, 2008 | 08:42 AM

GDP is out, ticking higher to 3.3% rather than 2.7%

And if you believe that data, I also have a bridge for sale in Brooklyn.

Why the beat on the headline figure? Aside from the usual inflation nonsense, there were two other factors: Exports, which rose to 13.2% (versus earlier reported 9.2%) and Inventories, which also played a part in the apparent strength.

My fishing buddy John Silvia of Wachovia put it into context:

"The overwhelming story is that the export numbers have offset this domestic weakness in consumer spending and business investment. We have a domestic recession.''

Also worth noting: larger than earlier reported gains in every single government expenditure category. If you are wondering why the government does not know what it is actually spending in near real time, welcome to the club.

Looking forward, I must note that Q3 does not have a stimulus package, but it *will* have a stronger dollar . . .

chart via Jake from EconomPic Data

Previously:
Fuzzy Numbers (August 2008)
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/08/fuzzy-numbers.html

Source:
GDP Second Quarter 2008 (Preliminary)
Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce
8:30 A.M. EDT, THURSDAY, AUGUST 28, 2008BEA 08-38
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

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» Is BEA Measuring Growth or Inflation? from The Big Picture
We noted earlier today that the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported revised Q2 GDP data at a better-than-expected annualized 3.3%. As discussed in the comments, the measure of Inflation is crucial to getting an accurate read on GDP (or Durable Goods).... [Read More]

Tracked on Aug 28, 2008 12:01:42 PM