Market Selloff Due to Presidential Polls ?

Monday, August 25, 2008 | 01:30 PM

If you ever wanted to see proof of the political bias of some pundits, today is the day.

Its the Monday after many weekend polls have shown McCain closing the gap between himself and Obama. Quite a few polls show he has drawn to a dead even draw, and even the lead Obama has in many polls is within the margin of error. One poll has McCain up 5%.

At mid-day Markets are off by > 1%, with the Nasdaq taking the biggest hit, down almost 2%, with the Dow down by 200.

Now, you might think we would be hearing a discussion -- any minute now -- that the market is reacting negatively to the polling data. This would be the ideal time to launch into a polemic about why this means the market doesn't like McCain. This theory could be backed up by showing the vastly disproportionate political donations made by Wall Street to Obama over McCain.

Only you won't . . .  Not because, as we have shown time and again, that its an awful, disingenuous argument. No, you won't hear it because its a fake thesis put forth by pure partisans who know a lot less about markets than they do politics.

Remember this discussion when some polls show McCain sliding and the market selling off.

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Assorted Presidential Polls Assorted_polls

via Real Clear Politics

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Previously:
The John McCain Market Selloff (March 07, 2008)
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/03/the-john-mccain.html

Stock Market Politics & the McCain Market Rally (March 07, 2008)
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/03/mccain-market-r.html

Pricing in a Bush Presidency (July 2008)
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/politics/index.html

Source:
General Election: McCain vs. Obama
RealClearPolitics 2008
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Monday, August 25, 2008 | 01:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (35) | TrackBack (0)
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Comments

Barry - NO LIE. You are reading my mind today. I was just thinking the VERY same thing (hence, my crankiness) and was going to post a comment on it, but didn't want to go off topic.

I wonder why the media isn't blaming McCain drawing even in the new polls for the market's drop today? Instead, I'm sure we'll hear the markets are dropping because of the Dem convention.

Posted by: Jeff M. | Aug 25, 2008 1:39:26 PM

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