Quote of the Day: "Beware of Conviction"
A good quote regarding all of those cocksure know-it-alls but get-it-all-wrong anyway on the tube:
"I continue to listen to and read a lot of convicted opinions -- for instance, the market has bottomed, financials have bottomed, oil has topped, stocks are enormously undervalued against historic measures (like short- and long-term interest rates), etc., etc. Their mantras of "certainty" are almost laughable considering so many uncertain economic, credit and geopolitical factors...
I would put those convicted opinions in a locked closet away from children and "talking heads" (like myself) who sometimes act like children...Err on the side of conservatism and invest/trade light. Too many imponderables, from my perch."- Doug Kass, THE EDGE (8/07/2008)
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Update: August 22, 2008 9:50am
Here's a May 2008 Barron's interview with Doug regarding his investing history and track record (Barron's pulls the info from Tremont Hedge Fund Research).
Wednesday, August 20, 2008 | 02:30 PM | Permalink
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Or you can short the crap out every rally like I've been doing...
When it stops working so well, then I'll move on.
You know what signalled the bottom back in 2003?
All the tech company management teams started calling us to vote for for their compensation plans that allowed them to reprice their options to lower strikes.
There is nothing like that occuring yet.
Posted by: Vermont Trader | Aug 20, 2008 2:36:56 PM
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