Intrade Opens VP Palin Withdrawal Contract

Tuesday, September 02, 2008 | 04:17 PM

Last week, we looked at the track record of Intrade regarding the VP nominees.

Since then, its been an eventful few days.

The Intrade prediction market has opened trading on whether "Sarah Palin to be withdrawn as Republican VP nominee before 2008 presidential election." (Note: I am more concerned with the futures market than I am with the politics. Please keep this focused).

Current odds:  14.3%


What do you think the odds are?

UPDATE: Spetember 2, 2008 8:52pm

Bloomberg article: McCain More Likely to Drop Palin, Bookmakers Say

The smart money thinks there's a better chance today than yesterday that John McCain will dump Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate.

Before the Republican senator's presidential campaign disclosed the pregnancy of Palin's 17-year-old daughter, bookmakers in Britain and Ireland were offering 20-1 odds or higher on a bet that she would be forced off the ticket, meaning a 1 pound ($1.78) bet would pay 20 pounds. Now that same bet will pay no more than 8 pounds.

"While it is rare that a VP candidate gets dropped, it's not completely impossible,'' said Ken Robertson, political betting analyst at Paddy Power Plc, a Dublin-based gambling company. ``Lots of our punters are betting `Shocking' Sarah's days are numbered,'' he added, using a nickname he came up with for the first-term Alaska governor.

The odds, based on wagers made online with Paddy Power and William Hill Plc and in their betting shops, also suggest that McCain is less likely to win the White House because of his vice-presidential running-mate choice, announced Aug. 29. Both gambling houses, along with rival Ladbrokes Plc, place Democrat Barack Obama, 47, as the favorite to triumph in the contest.

Tuesday, September 02, 2008 | 04:17 PM | Permalink | Comments (134) | TrackBack (0) add to | digg digg this! | technorati add to technorati | email email this post



TrackBack URL for this entry:

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Intrade Opens VP Palin Withdrawal Contract:


My conclusion from this nominee - McCain wants to lose the election. Who picks a VP that they only met once? One that has absolutely no clue about foreign policy, that only recently obtained a passport? McCain knows how bad the economy will be and wants no part of being president.

Posted by: Steve Barry | Sep 2, 2008 4:24:46 PM

The comments to this entry are closed.

Recent Posts

December 2008
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
  1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28 29 30 31      


Complete Archives List



Category Cloud

On the Nightstand

On the Nightstand

 Subscribe in a reader

Get The Big Picture!
Enter your email address:

Read our privacy policy

Essays & Effluvia

The Apprenticed Investor

Apprenticed Investor

About Me

About Me
email me

Favorite Posts

Tools and Feeds

AddThis Social Bookmark Button

Add to Google Reader or Homepage

Subscribe to The Big Picture

Powered by FeedBurner

Add to Technorati Favorites


My Wishlist

Worth Perusing

Worth Perusing

mp3s Spinning

MP3s Spinning

My Photo



Odds & Ends

Site by Moxie Design Studios™