The Big Picture

« Will NFP Breach 100k ? | Main | McCain Acceptance Speech Word Cloud »

NFP is . . . -84k!

Friday, September 05, 2008 | 08:30 AM

~~I'm out of pocket at 8:30am, so feel free to post comments about NFP and any related data . . .~~

Back in the Saddle, with a few quick notes and charts:

100k job loss! We now have had out 1st 100k month, in that the revisions for June brought the number from 51k to 100k even.

Unemployment Rate: now has a 6 handle on it -- 6.1% is the official number. Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Keith Hall stated that while previous joblessness gains were concentrated among teens, last month "workers age 25 and over accounted for all of the increase in unemployment."

Temporary Help: Was off 1.5% from July to August, and down more than 9% from August 2007.

Household Survey: Over the past 12 months, the number of unemployed persons has increased by 2.2 million and the unemployment rate has risen by 1.4 percentage points, with most of the increase occurring over the past 4 months.

Real GDP: ISI noted that the recent level of continuing unemployment claims is consistent with a 1.0% Real GDP in 3Q. In light of this report and the recent revisions, I would guess that is optimistic.

Recession: William Poole, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: "It certainly increases the probability that we really are in a recession. It is a weak number, including the revisions.''

Birth Death Adjustment: August 2007 = 102k; August 2008 = 125k -- There is an almost a reasonable explanation for this: B/D relies in some part on State incorporation filings. 100k people get laid off, and a big chunk of them start working for themselves as freelancers/independent contractors. They incorporate so they don't lose their house if the business goes belly up.

Hence, the more layoffs, the potentially greater B/D adjustments.

Monthly/Yearly Changes, NFP