Payroll Drops 159k

Friday, October 03, 2008 | 10:22 AM

No big surprise here -- the magic 100k breached for the 2nd time. (Next up: -250k!)

The recession deniers are now all but vanquished. Looking at this data, it is impossible to claim that the economy is expanding.

A few interesting surprises in the data:

Weak expectations: While the loss of 159k was much worse than consensus, the fear was a 200k+ month. Look for a 250k+ monthly loss sometime over the next few months.  

• Average weekly hours fell by 0.5% -- the lowest level since November 2004;

• U6, the broadest measure of Unemployment, spiked up to 11% -- its highest level since April 1994;

The September ADP Employment Report once again was wildly off, expecting private sector jobs to fall by just 8k. Given the huge fall off in its accuracy, the ADP report has now become more or less irrelevant;

• The Birth/Death model added 42k jobs -- somehow higher than the 29k added in September 2007. We continue to reliably assume that the real world NFP number is worse than BLS reports.

Construction jobs down by 35k, financial activities fell by 17k -- the most in this cycle;

• Of 274 industries, 38.1% were hiring in September, down from 44.7% in August.

The services sector -- the biggest part of the labor force -- lost 82k jobs;

Government, Health Care and Mining saw modest gains;

• Long-term unemployed (jobless for 27 weeks +) rose by 167,000 to 2.0 million. This has risen by 728,000 over the past 12 months. Long-term unemployed = 21.1% of total unemployment;

•  Persons working part time for economic reasons rose by 337,000 to 6.1 million in September, an increase of 1.6 million over the past 12 months;

 

BLS also added a special Hurricane Ike note: "It is unlikely the storm had substantial effects on the national employment estimates."      

Overall, a very mediocre report.

>

UPDATE: October 3, 2008 11:04am

I am glad to see that our modest proposal Unemployment Reporting: A Modest Proposal (U3 + U6)  that both U3 and U6 should be reported is gaining traction:

Rex Nutting, Market Watch
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/03/the-track-record/

Paul Krugman, NYT
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/03/the-track-record/

>

Bd_100308
Chart via Econompic

>

Sources:
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION
BLS, SEPTEMBER 2008
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Payrolls sink 159,000, worst job loss in 5 years
Rex Nutting
MarketWatch, 9:09 a.m. EDT Oct. 3, 2008
http://tinyurl.com/3kpze9

Friday, October 03, 2008 | 10:22 AM | Permalink | Comments (23) | TrackBack (0)
de.li.cious add to de.li.cious | digg digg this! | technorati add to technorati | email email this post

bn-image

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
https://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d8341c52a953ef010535200ff8970b

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Payroll Drops 159k:

Comments

760,000 jobs lost so far in 2008. Anyone think we'll breach a cool million by the end of the year?

Posted by: Boom2Bust.com | Oct 3, 2008 9:54:42 AM

The comments to this entry are closed.



Recent Posts

December 2008
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
  1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28 29 30 31      

Archives

Complete Archives List

Blogroll

Blogroll

Category Cloud

On the Nightstand

On the Nightstand

 Subscribe in a reader

Get The Big Picture!
Enter your email address:


Read our privacy policy

Essays & Effluvia

The Apprenticed Investor

Apprenticed Investor

About Me

About Me
email me

Favorite Posts

Tools and Feeds

AddThis Social Bookmark Button

Add to Google Reader or Homepage

Subscribe to The Big Picture

Powered by FeedBurner

Add to Technorati Favorites

FeedBurner


My Wishlist

Worth Perusing

Worth Perusing

mp3s Spinning

MP3s Spinning

My Photo

Disclaimer

Disclaimer

Odds & Ends

Site by Moxie Design Studios™

FeedBurner