The Big Picture

Crude Oil = $49

Friday, November 21, 2008 | 08:23 AM

Despite numerous OPEC production cuts, Crude Oil breaks $50. This morn, its trading between $48-49, as demand destruction and deflation have their way.

continued here

Crude Oil = $57

Wednesday, November 12, 2008 | 02:00 PM

in Energy

continued here

Crude Oil = $57

Thursday, November 06, 2008 | 08:48 PM

in Commodities | Energy | Markets

That's the first time since March 2007 that Crude has even broken $60.

Crude Oil, December Contract

via BarCharts

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PERMALINK AND COMMENTS HERE

Has the Market Fully Discounted the Bush Presidency ?

Tuesday, November 04, 2008 | 11:30 AM

in Commodities | Energy | Fixed Income/Interest Rates | Inflation | Politics

What is it that the market is pricing in?

While partisans try to blame the crash on one or the other candidates, here's something I have yet to hear any of the TV pundits discuss: The George W. Bush presidency.

While partisans try to blame the crash on one or the other candidates, here's something I have yet to hear any of the TV pundits discuss: Blaming it on the presidency of George W. Bush.

Currency Markets are the world's vote on US monetary policies

via TradingCharts.com

S&P500 2001-08, weekly

Equities: Which Sell off do you hold the occupant of the White House Responsible for: The One that began prior to his arrival, or the one that began prior to his departure?

Chart courtesy of Fusion IQ, Bloomberg

I do not believe that the 2000-03 crash was a result the markets pricing in a Bush Presidency. However, one could certainly make the case that the past few years market action has been the result of his fiscal, tax, and spending policies.

Oil Prices Respond to Energy and Military Policies

Two oil men in the White House, two wars, no conservation efforts, and no attempts to develop alternatives to Crude Oil:

via TradingCharts.com

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Gold, 2001-08 weekly

The Gold market is a store of value in uncertain times -- what is it saying about the Bush policies?

Chart courtesy of Fusion IQ, Bloomberg

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Bonds: 10 Year Treasury, 1980-2008

Chart courtesy of Fusion IQ, Bloomberg

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Longstanding downward trend in rates was in effect since the Volcker Fed broke inflation in 1980 -- recent Presidents (W, Clinton, Reagan) have all benefited from this trend

What are the markets really pricing in ? Might it be the W. presidency?

Permalink and comments here

Previously:
Pricing in a Bush Presidency (July 08, 2008)
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/07/pricing-in-a-bush-presidency/

Crude Oil = $61

Monday, October 27, 2008 | 09:52 AM

in Commodities | Energy | Technical Analysis

We were talking about deflation when Crude Oil hit $75 -- 2 weeks ago; This morning, we hit $61 and change:

Crude Oil via Barcharts

Crude Oil = $75

Wednesday, October 15, 2008 | 10:30 AM

in Energy | Inflation | Technical Analysis

Talk about your deflation:

Crude Oil via Barcharts

Oil = $81

Friday, October 10, 2008 | 05:25 AM

in Commodities | Energy

Wow! As the markets crater, Crude Oil has really gotten shellacked -- down about 40% from the peak in July.

While the SPX too a full year to lose that much, this has been 4 months:
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November Crude Oil Futures

via Barcharts

Crude Oil = $130

Monday, September 22, 2008 | 02:45 PM

in Commodities | Currency | Energy | Taxes and Policy

I guess the markets are not enamored with the Paulson plan.

The dollar has dropped the most versus the Euro since its inception, according to Bloomberg. And ddue to the collapse of the greenback, Briefing is reporting that COMDX Crude oil trades to new 2-month high of $130 per barrel.

Crude Oil, October Futures (delayed 20 minutes)

chart via Barcharts

Crude Oil = $92 $91

Tuesday, September 16, 2008 | 07:01 AM

in Commodities | Energy | Technical Analysis

The kneejerk reaction to lowered crude is that its a positive for consumers. Under normal circumstances, that is true. But int he current environment, well, not so much.

The drop from $147 to $110 or so was demand destruction, as Americans drove less miles, stayed closer to home, consumed less. It is a classic case of high prices being the cure for high prices.

But the recent acceleration of the price drop in commodities is a reaction to a variety of macro factors. Ike being less bad than expected is certainly part of it, but there's a lot more to it than that. The collapse of Lehman Brothers, the BA/Merrill merger, and AIG's crisis are all huge credit negatives.

They imply further economic dislocation due to a tightening credit availability, and other related problems. In my mind, that's why Oil is selling off -- expectations of further credit dislocation and economic contraction.

Your mileage may vary . . .

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Crude Oil Almost Down to $92
click for updated chart